Authorities in Indonesia have blocked access to Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, following the creation of betting markets on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office prematurely. The move underscores a growing global trend where regulators classify such platforms as gambling rather than forecasting tools.
The Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs, known as Komdigi, stated that Polymarket operates effectively as online gambling disguised as a prediction market. Officials emphasized that the government would not tolerate any form of online gambling within the country. This decision was triggered by a market launched on May 20, 2026, which allowed users to bet on Prabowo ceasing to be president by various dates in 2026, including May 31, June 30, and December 31. Trading volumes on that market reached approximately $46,000, with implied probabilities of 1% for an early exit by May 31, 2% by June 30, and 15% by year-end.
Polymarket’s contract rules specified that the market would resolve affirmatively if Prabowo left office through resignation, removal, detention, or any other condition preventing him from fulfilling his duties. Komdigi expanded its criticism beyond the Prabowo market, stating that the platform generally allows users to bet money on uncertain events, which conflicts with Indonesian law. The ministry also warned that it might extend restrictions to social media accounts promoting Polymarket.
The action in Indonesia mirrors similar moves by India, which blocked Polymarket earlier under its 2025 gaming law, classifying crypto prediction markets as prohibited money gaming services. India’s authorities also raised concerns about stablecoin payments and capital outflows. Other countries, including Argentina, Colombia, and Romania, have imposed restrictions on the platform after deeming it unauthorized gambling.
Meanwhile, prediction markets face scrutiny even in the United States. Kalshi, a rival platform, has backed a new advocacy group pushing for federal rules and consumer protections. U.S. lawmakers are investigating user verification and trading controls on platforms like Polymarket, amid fears that insiders could exploit non-public information for profit. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also faced internal turmoil over its oversight of event contracts.