A super PAC linked to the cryptocurrency industry has injected $5 million into a Texas congressional runoff election scheduled for Tuesday. Protect Progress, an affiliate of the Fairshake PAC, allocated the funds to support Democrat Christian Menefee while spending an additional $2.8 million to oppose incumbent Congressman Al Green, according to recent Federal Election Commission filings. Fairshake entered 2026 with approximately $193 million in available funds.
Prediction markets are heavily favoring Menefee, with Kalshi giving him a 91% chance of victory and Polymarket showing similar odds. Meanwhile, the parallel Republican Senate primary runoff between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn has attracted over $16 million in betting volume, with Paxton holding around 96% probability following an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
Green has emerged as a vocal critic of digital assets on Capitol Hill, voting against both the GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation and the Clarity Act. He received an F rating from the advocacy group Stand With Crypto. In a House floor speech, Green declared himself an unbought Democrat and accused Menefee of striking a deal with the devil by accepting PAC money. Fairshake, primarily funded by Ripple Labs and Coinbase, also gained support from the Blockchain Leadership Fund, backed by Anchorage Digital and Chainlink Labs, in the race. Menefee first entered Congress through a special election in January 2026 and quickly became the industry’s favored candidate over Green.
The outcome in Texas is being closely watched as a bellwether for how effectively pro-crypto political spending can influence congressional races in closely contested districts, especially given the compressed legislative timeline ahead of the 2026 midterms.