Bitcoin’s price dipped to around $77,300 on May 20, slipping below the $78,000 mark during early trading. Despite ongoing volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, persistent ETF outflows, and inflation worries from rising oil costs, analysts believe the current market setup mirrors past accumulation phases that led to major rallies.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez points to a key signal from the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. He notes that the ratio has fallen below its 180-day simple moving average, which historically indicates a shift toward a high-conviction accumulation zone rather than a cooling phase. Martinez explains that when the MVRV ratio sits below this average, speculative excess gets flushed out, creating a discount that savvy long-term investors often exploit.
Using MVRV pricing bands, Martinez suggests Bitcoin could rally toward $94,850 if it holds above the critical support at $72,960. Losing that level might trigger a deeper correction toward the realized price near $54,270.
This optimistic on-chain view comes despite worsening short-term macroeconomic conditions. WTI crude oil futures eased to around $103 per barrel after President Trump’s renewed threats against Iran, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and fueling inflation fears. Higher energy costs complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline, adding pressure to risk assets.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin also weakened. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $331 million in net outflows on Tuesday, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, marking three consecutive days of withdrawals totaling nearly $1.27 billion. Over the past two weeks, outflows have approached $2 billion, reversing six weeks of inflows. However, long-term holder behavior remains resilient compared to previous corrections, supporting the accumulation narrative.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin maintains a higher-low structure intact since February’s low near $60,000. Price action stabilizes above an ascending trendline, with the 50-day SMA near $76,000 providing support. The Aroon indicator flashes bullish signals: Aroon Up at 85.7 and Aroon Down near zero, suggesting strengthening momentum. If bulls reclaim the $80,000–$81,000 resistance, a rally toward $85,000 could follow, potentially accelerating to the $95,000 MVRV target.
Derivatives data shows dense leveraged liquidity clusters above recent highs, hinting at upside targeting. Yet downside risks remain: losing $72,960 could trigger a decline toward $65,000 or even $54,000 if macro conditions sour.