CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has issued a cautionary outlook on Bitcoin, suggesting that the current bear market could stretch into early 2027. Speaking on X, Ju highlighted that historical data from on-chain profit and loss indicators shows a pattern of 18-month downturns after profit-taking peaks. The shift began in October 2025, which aligns with past extended bear cycles seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
According to Ju, the key to a market reversal lies in the simultaneous rise of unrealized profits and decline of realized profits—a condition that has not yet emerged. Until that occurs, selling pressure is likely to persist. The warning comes as Bitcoin hovers around $73,000, down about 30% from its 2025 highs, amid macroeconomic headwinds like elevated US Treasury yields and a general risk-off sentiment.
Not all experts share the same timeline. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck has indicated that Bitcoin might be nearing a cycle bottom, citing stabilization in options markets and reduced selling from long-term holders. Similarly, Coinbase has pointed to potential support between May and June, which could pave the way for a stronger third quarter. However, Ju emphasizes that on-chain dynamics remain bearish, with capital inflows failing to lift prices proportionally—a classic bear market trait.
For a robust recovery, Ju stresses the need for renewed activity from spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional over-the-counter desks, both of which have slowed recently. While ETF inflows remain positive, they have normalized from the frenzy of early 2025. Key resistance levels for Bitcoin are identified at $74,200 and $74,500, where sell orders are concentrated. The potential passage of regulatory clarity bills, such as the Clarity Act, could shift sentiment, but Ju’s model suggests market cycles operate independently of policy changes.