Galaxy Digital has revised its outlook for the CLARITY Act becoming law this year, citing a shrinking legislative window in the Senate. The firm now estimates only a 60% chance of passage, down from 75% in May.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s research chief, explained that the bill’s momentum has stalled due to the crowded Senate calendar. He noted that floor time must be secured by July to allow for debate, amendments, and reconciliation with House versions before the August recess. After that, midterm campaigning will dominate, making major legislation difficult to advance.
Key unresolved issues include provisions on ethics and illicit finance, which continue to divide lawmakers. Thorn indicated that odds could improve if Senate leaders commit to a July vote and bridge these differences. Senator Cynthia Lummis has urged action, emphasizing that the bill has cleared committee and needs only floor approval.
Other industry observers share the caution. JPMorgan has placed passage chances below 50%, while Bitwise’s CIO noted estimates as low as 5% to 30% among Washington insiders. The CLARITY Act remains a top priority for crypto advocates, but its fate hinges on whether leaders can navigate procedural hurdles and bipartisan negotiations before the election season tightens the schedule.