Solana’s recent bounce from multi-month lows is losing steam, with technical patterns and on-chain data signaling potential for another leg down. After plunging from around $80 to near $61 in early June, SOL managed to climb back to $67, but the rally has stalled well below key resistance at $70. A bearish flag formation on the four-hour chart suggests the downtrend may resume, possibly retesting the June support zone near $60.
Whale activity remains a concern, with large transfers to exchanges during the selloff, including a 455,784 SOL deposit to Coinbase Prime worth roughly $31.9 million. Additionally, a scheduled unlock of about 624,666 SOL on June 7 added to circulating supply, while staked SOL has fallen to its lowest level since December 2023, indicating weakening holder conviction.
Macroeconomic headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation, continue to weigh on risk assets. Meanwhile, capital appears to be rotating toward AI stocks and large tech listings, reducing appetite for speculative altcoins. Derivative products like Solana perpetuals on Kalshi may increase volatility, but for now, sellers remain in control.
From a technical perspective, SOL remains trapped between Murrey Math support at $62.50 and resistance at $65.63 on the four-hour chart. The bearish flag pattern, formed after the sharp decline from $80, is a continuation signal. A breakdown below flag support could expose $62.50, with further downside targets at $59.38 and $56.25. The daily chart shows SOL trading below the Supertrend resistance at $75.23, keeping the broader trend bearish. Daily MACD remains below zero, and while selling pressure has eased, a bullish crossover has not yet materialized. For bulls to regain control, SOL needs to reclaim the $68–$70 zone and then target $75. Failure to hold $62–$60 could trigger a drop toward $53–$56.
While the recovery from June lows could still evolve, current signals suggest a corrective bounce rather than a trend reversal. Traders should monitor the flag’s lower boundary for potential breakdown scenarios.