Solana has faced a decline of over 6% since its June 15 peak, as the rejection from a key resistance zone, paired with a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, has prompted traders to adopt a risk-averse approach.
Data from crypto.news shows that SOL slipped from a high of $75.60 to a low of $70.70 on June 18 before stabilizing near $71. This downturn followed a strong rebound from early June lows around $62, during which SOL surged more than 20% amid a broader crypto market recovery.
The sell-off intensified after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and flagged persistent inflation risks, hinting at further tightening in 2026. This led traders to reduce holdings in high-beta assets.
Bitcoin retreated toward $64,000 following the announcement, and many large-cap altcoins saw even sharper declines. Meanwhile, oil markets added to the uncertainty, with preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement reports helping crude prices ease from highs, but traders remained cautious about geopolitical tensions and inflation keeping monetary policy tight.
On the daily chart, SOL faced rejection at the $75-$76 resistance area, which was previously structural support before June’s breakdown. After failing to reclaim that zone, the price fell below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $74.80 and now trades just above the 78.6% level around $68.40.
A descending trendline connecting May and June highs remains intact, preserving a short-term bearish outlook. A daily close above that trendline could target resistance near $74.80 and $79.30, while a breakout may open the path to the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $79 and eventually $84.
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index has left oversold territory but remains below the neutral 50, indicating buyers lack full control. The Aroon indicator still favors sellers, with Aroon Down well above Aroon Up.
Market commentator BATMAN observed that SOL was rejected at its prior support, now resistance, and noted the stochastic oscillator reached the same overbought region that preceded the last major top, suggesting further bearish continuation is likely.
Derivatives positioning adds to the challenges. CoinGlass liquidation heatmap data reveals a dense cluster of leveraged positions between $74 and $76, creating a liquidity pool above current prices. Additional liquidation interest is seen near $66, with the largest concentration around $65, which often attracts short-term price moves as market makers hunt leveraged positions.
Beyond technicals, Solana faces questions about network activity. DefiLlama data shows weaker transaction fee generation and slower TVL growth compared to earlier cycle stages, undermining one of SOL’s past outperformances. Institutional capital has shifted to traditional markets, with strong demand for the SpaceX IPO and AI-linked equities drawing liquidity away from speculative crypto assets. Digital asset investment products have also seen persistent outflows lately.
Immediate support remains near $70. A decisive break below could bring June lows around $62 back into focus, with Fibonacci extension projecting downside to $60. For bulls to regain credibility, they must first reclaim the $74-$76 resistance band.