Bitcoin surged more than 2 percent to reach $63,770 following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah that calmed market anxieties and contributed to an 8 percent weekly drop in oil prices. The cryptocurrency later settled near $63,600 after hitting an intraday high, reversing a 7 percent slide from the June 15 peak of $67,200 that was driven by ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions, and a shift away from risky assets.
Optimism returned after reports confirmed that Israel and Hezbollah would begin a ceasefire on Friday, with a U.S. official verifying the deal and Iranian leaders expressing willingness to resume diplomatic talks with Washington if the terms are upheld. This development reduced fears of an expanded regional conflict and pushed crude oil benchmarks Brent and WTI to multi-week lows, down roughly 8 percent for the week.
Safe-haven assets like gold and silver lost ground as investors moved capital into higher-risk opportunities, with gold falling 1.6 percent and silver dropping about 2 percent over the past day, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rebound from weekly lows.
Derivatives activity has amplified the recovery, with a large options expiry approaching—nearly $10.6 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire on June 26—adding to the upward momentum. Short sellers were forced to reduce positions after Bitcoin entered oversold territory following the June 18 selloff, a condition that often triggers short covering, which exerts additional upward pressure on price. Data from CoinGlass shows a significant liquidation cluster in the $64,000 to $65,000 range just above current levels, with another near $66,000, suggesting that a sustained rally could trigger further forced buying and increase volatility.
Institutional flows remain mixed, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $226 million in net outflows this week, extending a withdrawal trend since mid-May. However, the selling pace has slowed compared to prior weeks, offering some relief.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading within a symmetrical triangle on the four-hour chart, bounded by a descending resistance line from the June 15 high and a rising support line from the June 5 low. Price action has compressed toward the apex, often preceding a large directional move. A breakthrough above $64,760 would clear both triangle resistance and a major Fibonacci level, with the measured move target projecting toward $79,000 to $80,000. Daily momentum indicators are improving: the MACD histogram shows consecutive higher readings after a prolonged decline, the RSI has climbed from near-oversold territory back above 38, and Chaikin Money Flow, though still negative, is turning upward, indicating easing selling pressure.
The bullish scenario weakens if Bitcoin falls below the triangle’s ascending support and slips under $62,000. CoinGlass data shows heavy liquidity around $61,800 to $62,000, making that zone a key battleground. A breakdown below that could expose the June low near $59,200 and shift momentum back to bears.
Traders are also keeping an eye on U.S.-Iran negotiations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and ETF flows. Any renewed Middle East escalation, a rise in oil prices, or another wave of institutional selling could hinder Bitcoin’s recovery and delay a breakout attempt.