Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range around $76,000, unable to push past the $78,000–$79,000 resistance zone. The cryptocurrency market is grappling with persistent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have now extended into a third consecutive day, and deepening divisions within the Federal Reserve that are dampening risk appetite. According to analysts, the lack of a clear policy direction from the central bank is adding to investor uncertainty, making it difficult for Bitcoin to gain upward momentum.
Kraken’s chief economist, Thomas Perfumo, noted that the market is more focused on the internal disagreements at the Fed than on the decision to hold rates steady. With Jerome Powell still at the helm but Kevin Warsh expected to take over, there is no clear policy transition, which adds to the uncertainty. This leadership overhang compounds the impact of a Fed that has rarely shown such severe internal splits, leading traders to anticipate greater uncertainty over inflation.
On-chain data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin remains trapped below its True Market Mean, with resistance heavily clustered in the $78,000–$79,000 zone. While selling pressure has eased at lower levels, spot demand has not expanded enough to support a decisive breakout, leaving the price stuck between patient buyers and hesitant new capital. The support base between $65,000 and $70,000 remains robust, but the market lacks the conviction to move higher.
Macroeconomic factors are also playing a role, as institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares argue that expectations of prolonged high interest rates are suppressing risk assets across the board. This has pushed crypto into a waiting phase rather than trending conditions typically seen with aggressive Fed easing. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $138 million on April 29 alone, with Ethereum ETFs also experiencing outflows of $87.7 million over the same period. While some individual funds still see inflows, the aggregate pattern indicates cooling institutional demand.
In the derivatives market, short positions in Bitcoin perpetual contracts have hit historical highs, setting the stage for a potential short squeeze if sentiment or macro signals improve. However, for now, the market is characterized by low volatility and low confidence, with continuous ETF outflows, a divided Fed, and elevated policy risk collectively capping Bitcoin’s attempts to break through the $78,000–$79,000 ceiling.