Solana experienced a pullback on Monday after hitting resistance near the critical $100 level, yet market participants are eyeing an imminent moving average crossover that might spark a recovery.
As of May 12, data from crypto.news indicates that SOL was trading near $95, after a brief peak at $97.6 earlier in the day. Despite the rejection at the upper barrier, the coin is still well above its April lows around $80.
The current dip aligns with a broader weakening in cryptocurrency sentiment, driven by Bitcoin’s fall below $82,000 amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Many traders are taking profits following last week’s rally, which has pressured altcoins.
Nonetheless, Solana’s technical landscape is improving. It has reclaimed several key moving averages in the past fortnight, signaling underlying strength. The 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are all within a tight range between $85 and $88, often a precursor to a significant price move.
A pivotal development is the 20-day SMA approaching a bullish crossover above the 50-day SMA. If confirmed, this could accelerate buying momentum in the near term. Additionally, the Supertrend indicator has turned green for the first time since January, suggesting buyers are regaining control after months of downtrend.
However, caution remains on higher timeframes as SOL trades below its declining 200-day SMA near $113, a major long-term resistance. If bulls push above the recent high of $97, the next target is the psychological $100 mark. Breaking through could pave the way to the $112-$115 zone, where the 200-day SMA lies.
Conversely, losing support at the $85-$88 moving average cluster would weaken the bullish outlook and could lead to a retest of $80, a level that saw strong buying interest previously.
On-chain activity is slowly recovering, with network usage and validator participation stabilizing after the first-quarter correction. Derivatives markets are also showing modest improvement, with futures activity finding a base. Traders are now focused on whether Solana can maintain support above the mid-$90s before attempting another run at $100.