For the first time since March 2023, CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has flipped into bullish territory, hinting at a potential shift away from bearish market behavior. The indicator, which hinges on the Profit and Loss Index combining MVRV ratio, NUPL, and a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios, registered this change on May 12.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted on social media that such a transition typically implies that the correction’s worst phase may be over and that market structure is starting to recover. When the signal turned, Bitcoin was trading above $80,000, recovering roughly 35% from its February lows around $60,000.
Historically, the last confirmed green reading in March 2023 persisted until August 2024, accompanying Bitcoin’s climb from roughly $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. However, a critical exception occurred in March 2022 when the indicator briefly turned green before Bitcoin extended a deeper downtrend into 2023. This has led analysts to urge caution, emphasizing that this signal is more a regime-shift tool than a predictive crystal ball.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, explained that the indicator is most valuable for identifying when Bitcoin stops acting like a bear-market asset, but sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels are essential before the signal can be fully validated. Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin must decisively break the $82,000 resistance level, which has thwarted multiple rally attempts, for price action to confirm the bullish signal.
Supporting the potential regime change, April saw $2.44 billion in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the strongest monthly institutional accumulation since October 2025. Additionally, Glassnode’s RHODL ratio stands at 4.5, the third-highest in Bitcoin’s history, with previous comparable levels occurring at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms. Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, separately argued that Bitcoin may have found its cycle bottom at $60,000 earlier in 2026 and identified $90,000 as a threshold where a rally could become explosive toward the prior all-time high of $126,000. Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang highlighted that Bitcoin is “positioned for a potential breakout toward $85,000 to $90,000,” driven by strong institutional support and continued ETF inflows.