Author: Gabby

A new projection from Standard Chartered estimates that by the end of 2028, around $4 trillion worth of assets will exist on blockchain networks. This figure includes both stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets, each contributing about half of the total. The bank highlights that established decentralized finance platforms are poised to benefit the most from this growth.

Geoffrey Kendrick, who leads digital assets research at Standard Chartered, points out that DeFi’s composability allows the same asset to be used for earning yield, as collateral, and for liquidity without relying on traditional intermediaries. This flexibility is a key advantage over conventional finance.

The bank uses BlackRock’s BUIDL fund as a prime example of the trend. This $2.85 billion tokenized Treasury fund generates returns from government bonds, converts to sBUIDL for use in DeFi, and serves as core collateral for Ethena’s USDtb and Ondo’s OUSG. Meanwhile, Aave—the largest DeFi lending protocol—has seen daily stablecoin lending volumes between $1.5 billion and $2 billion at its peak, and Coinbase’s lending product with Morpho has reached $1.75 billion in loans.

Kendrick believes the CLARITY Act is the most important near-term catalyst for moving assets from traditional systems to DeFi. The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee by a vote of 15-9 on May 14 and now moves to a full floor vote. If enacted, it could accelerate adoption significantly.

The $4 trillion projection consolidates two earlier forecasts from Kendrick: a $2 trillion stablecoin market and a $2 trillion tokenized real-world asset market, both by 2028. The bank reaffirmed the RWA forecast in April despite recent security incidents in DeFi.

Currently, there are roughly 1,000 times more assets held off-chain than on-chain, according to the report. Kendrick argues that tokenizing institutional-grade assets is the most likely growth driver, and protocols that can scale safely will capture the most value. He writes, “TradFi operators moving assets onchain will favor established players with strong risk metrics.” Aave, Compound, and Morpho are seen as leaders, with Ethereum remaining the dominant settlement layer.

On-chain detective ZachXBT has put forward a reward of up to $10,000 for insider proof that Hong Kong-based market maker Heisenberg Guru (HSBG) manipulated trading on centralized exchanges. The bounty specifically targets activities near the RIVER token.

In a recent post through his investigative channel, ZachXBT accused HSBG of being involved in multiple market manipulation episodes on centralized platforms. He highlighted trading surrounding RIVER as an example of the alleged misconduct. The bounty aims to uncover hard documentation that can confirm or question ongoing suspicions about HSBG’s order book tactics.

ZachXBT named “Sion” and “Chao” as key figures within HSBG, shifting focus from a vague trading alias to specific individuals. He noted that a wide range of materials could qualify for rewards, including chat logs, contracts, and other internal communications that reveal how HSBG coordinates trading activity on centralized exchanges.

Whistleblowers are instructed to send tips via private message on X, where ZachXBT conducts most of his public investigations. He did not provide a detailed verification process initially, but his past work typically involves cross-referencing on-chain data, platform records, and corroborating statements before issuing comprehensive reports.

The incentive structure scales payments based on the quality, relevance, and verifiability of submissions, rather than offering a flat sum. This approach mirrors his previous crowdsourced probes, where independently confirmable documents receive higher compensation than anonymous claims.

This initiative underscores the expanding role of independent on-chain investigators in regulating ambiguous activities within crypto markets, especially for thinly traded CEX listings where formal oversight is often lacking. If the bounty yields credible evidence of manipulation tied to HSBG, it could force exchanges to reassess their partnerships with certain market makers and may prompt regulators to scrutinize trading practices in Hong Kong-linked market segments more closely.

Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher dismissed in 2024 over an alleged leak, has dramatically expanded his Situational Awareness fund. A recent SEC filing reveals that the fund’s disclosed equity holdings surged from $5.52 billion to $13.67 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The boldest bets are concentrated in a select group of Bitcoin miners including IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, Bitfarms, Bitdeer, and Hive Digital. These positions reflect a conviction that energy infrastructure, not just algorithms, will become the most critical asset in the AI era.

Aschenbrenner’s thesis is straightforward: the bottleneck for AI progress is not semiconductor innovation but access to reliable power and land. Bitcoin miners already possess high-density power sites and grid connections that are scarce and difficult to reproduce quickly. His earlier white paper, “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” argued that compute infrastructure would dictate the speed of AGI development more than model breakthroughs. This logic is underpinned by market trends where miners like TeraWulf have seen AI and HPC hosting revenue outpace Bitcoin mining profits for the first time. Core Scientific is similarly converting its Pecos site into a massive 1.5GW AI data center campus, repurposing 300MW of existing mining capacity.

While placing large bets on miners, the fund simultaneously opened $7.46 billion in put options against chip giants. The largest single position is $2.04 billion against the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, followed by $1.57 billion against Nvidia, $1.07 billion against Oracle, and $1.01 billion against Broadcom. This dual strategy is internally consistent: if value accrues to power infrastructure rather than chipmakers, then semiconductor valuations could face pressure even as energy operators thrive. The broader industry shift is accelerating, with companies from Bitdeer to Riot converting mining facilities into AI data centers. Full holdings data is now publicly accessible through regulatory filings, confirming that crypto miners have become the foundation of one of the largest AI-focused investment strategies ever deployed.

Payward, the parent company of Kraken, reported $507 million in adjusted revenue for the first quarter of 2026, marking a 3% year-over-year increase. This growth came despite a challenging crypto market where Bitcoin dropped 22%, total market capitalization fell 23%, and industry spot volumes decreased 38%. The standout performer was derivatives trading, which saw daily average revenue trades jump 51% compared to the same period last year.

The surge in derivatives activity was fueled by the expansion of platforms such as NinjaTrader and Breakout, as well as Kraken’s broader build-out of its futures offerings. Management noted that this strategic focus helps offset the cyclical nature of spot trading. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $18 million for the quarter, as Payward intentionally increased spending on mergers and acquisitions, product development, and regulatory infrastructure. The company believes that investing during the current bear market will position it for stronger growth when market conditions improve.

Kraken’s spot market share rose from approximately 3.5% in mid-2025 to 5.2% in March 2026, a significant increase in a competitive landscape. The number of funded accounts grew 47% year-over-year to 6.1 million, while total client assets on the platform reached $40 billion. Co-CEO Arjun Sethi emphasized the company’s commitment to investing while others pull back, stating that this strategy validates their long-term approach. Payward’s ability to grow revenue and capture market share amid a downturn highlights the strength of its diversified revenue model, particularly from derivatives. If current trends continue, the company’s investments could yield substantial benefits when the next crypto upcycle arrives.

Kraken’s parent company, Payward, reported $507 million in adjusted revenue for the first quarter of 2026, marking a 3% increase compared to the same period in 2025. This growth occurred despite a 22% decline in Bitcoin’s price and a 38% drop in overall spot trading volumes across the industry. The exchange’s diversified business model, including a strong push into derivatives, helped offset the market slump.

Payward’s co-CEO, Arjun Sethi, emphasized the company’s proactive approach, stating that while others retreated, the firm continued to invest aggressively. The derivatives segment saw daily average revenue trades jump 51%, fueled by the recent acquisition of CFTC-licensed platform Bitnomial for $550 million, as well as growth in offerings like NinjaTrader and Breakout. Kraken’s spot market share also improved, rising from around 3.5% in mid-2025 to 5.2% in March 2026.

Total transaction volume on the platform reached $357 billion in Q1, while funded accounts grew 47% year-over-year to 6.1 million. Assets on the platform hit $40 billion. However, adjusted EBITDA fell to $18 million as Payward continued to spend on acquisitions, product development, and regulatory infrastructure. The company has been building a non-trading revenue stream, which accounted for 53% of total revenue in 2025, reducing reliance on volatile trading volumes.

On the IPO front, Payward confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC in November 2025 but paused the process in March, with sources suggesting a public listing might be delayed until 2027. The exchange also laid off about 150 employees in May, citing AI-driven efficiencies, representing roughly 5% of its workforce.

On May 18, XRP retreated by 2%, settling near $1.3865 as investors cashed in gains after the token failed to breach the $1.42 resistance level. The most vigorous selling occurred during the May 17 23:00 UTC trading hour, where a surge of 144.3 million in volume drove the price from the $1.42 region down to around $1.378. However, buying interest emerged near $1.38, preventing a deeper decline and allowing for a partial recovery by the session’s end.

This rejection carries technical weight because a substantial number of XRP tokens, roughly 1.24 billion, are held by investors who purchased them between $1.45 and $1.47. This concentration forms a significant supply barrier that absorbs buying pressure each time the price approaches that threshold, as previously noted by crypto.news.

The token remains confined within a months-long symmetrical triangle pattern, which is now tightening toward an expected resolution in late May. While sellers maintain control at the $1.42 upper boundary, buyers have consistently defended the $1.38 support level. Analysts highlight that this compression is setting the stage for a decisive move, with the next major catalyst being the Senate Banking Committee’s vote on the CLARITY Act. According to Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, passage could drive $4 to $8 billion in additional inflows into XRP ETFs.

If the $1.38 support breaks, the next likely target is $1.30, as traders who entered at higher levels continue to sell on any bounce. Currently, XRP trades about 62% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. Conversely, a close above $1.42 would be the first clear sign that sellers are losing their grip, potentially opening the door for further gains. Until then, the triangle compression is expected to persist, with analysts warning that the eventual breakout could be swift and sharp.

Citi has issued a warning about Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum computing, stating that the cryptocurrency faces an outsized threat compared to other digital assets. According to a research note from analyst Alex Saunders, dated May 18, the timeline for quantum machines to crack Bitcoin’s encryption is shrinking due to rapid technological advances. The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s decentralized governance structure makes it particularly susceptible because protocol upgrades require extensive coordination among miners and node operators, a process that can take years.

The bank estimates that between 6.5 and 6.9 million Bitcoin, worth approximately $450 billion, have public keys already exposed on the blockchain. This includes wallets linked to the pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. Such exposed keys could be vulnerable to a ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ strategy, where attackers collect encrypted data today for future quantum-enabled decryption. In contrast, proof-of-stake networks like Ethereum may be more agile in updating their protocols, though they present a larger attack surface overall.

Citi remains optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s long-term adaptability through post-quantum cryptography, but notes that proposed upgrades like BIP-360 and BIP-361 still require broad consensus. The broader Bitcoin ecosystem faces additional pressures from rising energy costs and the pivot of miners toward artificial intelligence, as highlighted by JPMorgan’s separate analysis on miner overvaluation. With Bitcoin trading near $76,900, the quantum threat adds another layer of strategic concern for investors.