Bitcoin has made a notable recovery, climbing back above $62,000 after dipping to around $59,100 last week. This rebound briefly pushed the cryptocurrency to nearly $64,200 before sellers stepped in, leaving the market in a tug-of-war between key support and initial resistance. At time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $63,000, up 1.39% in 24 hours, with a daily range of $61,206 to $63,739. Despite the bounce, the seven-day loss still stands at 14.06%, indicating that buyers have slowed the decline but not reversed the broader weekly trend. The upcoming ETF flows and futures positioning will be crucial tests for this recovery.
The most significant support is the 200-week simple moving average at approximately $62,800, which Bitcoin managed to hold after sweeping February’s low. Crypto analyst Crypto Rover noted that a weekly close above this level is a positive sign, suggesting another test of the $64,000–$64,200 range could be on the cards. If Bitcoin closes below the 200-week average, attention will shift to $60,000 and the recent low of $59,100. The current decline stems from a convergence of macroeconomic pressures, including higher inflation that dashed hopes for looser monetary policy and robust U.S. employment data. In May, the economy added 172,000 jobs against an expectation of 85,000, keeping unemployment at 4.3%. This led to a sell-off that saw Bitcoin dip below $60,000, triggering over $1.7 billion in crypto liquidations in 24 hours.
Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI is at 26.43, below the oversold threshold of 30, suggesting selling has been overdone and a relief bounce is possible. However, the MACD remains bearish, with the MACD line at -4,019.58 below the signal line at -2,951.83 and a negative histogram. This divergent setup means that while short-term momentum may favor buyers, sellers still control the broader trend. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 8, signaling extreme fear, which historically has preceded bottoms. Trader Scott Melker sees a potential weekly bullish divergence forming on the RSI, but it requires confirmation through a higher close on both price and RSI.
Geopolitical developments have also influenced Bitcoin’s movement. Reports of a potential deal between the U.S. and Iran initially boosted risk assets, but subsequent Israeli strikes on Iranian targets have reintroduced uncertainty. Brent oil rose above $96 per barrel, which could fuel inflation fears and keep pressure on interest rates. Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets means that energy price spikes may weigh on the recovery. Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez outlines a support ladder emphasizing the 200-week SMA at $62,800, the 300-week SMA at $55,000, and the 400-week SMA near $42,500. Bitcoin must first defend $62,800 and $60,000 before lower levels become relevant. The $55,000 area, aligned with a long-term trendline tracked by Crypto Patel, is the next major support if the recent low is breached. Calls for deeper corrections remain speculative until these key levels are lost.
Derivatives data adds an extra layer of risk. Open interest has risen while prices fell, indicating increased leverage. This setup could trigger a short squeeze if Bitcoin clears $64,200, or a long squeeze if it falls below $60,000. A firm close above $64,200 would strengthen the recovery and support the bullish RSI divergence case. For now, the 200-week average at $62,800 is the critical dividing line. Holding it keeps $64,200 in play and allows buyers to build a base. Losing it would bring $60,000, $59,100, and potentially $55,000 into focus, with the bearish MACD as the dominant signal.
