Benchmark, a well-known investment bank, has revised its 12-month price target for Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) downward to $570 from $705, as reported in recent market updates. Despite this reduction, the firm maintains a Buy rating on the stock, acknowledging a shift in their Bitcoin price assumptions following significant volatility in both the cryptocurrency and Strategy’s shares.
The revised target reflects a more cautious near-term outlook, as Strategy’s stock plummeted alongside Bitcoin from early-2025 highs. Benchmark had previously been among the most bullish analysts on Strategy, with analyst Mark Palmer repeatedly affirming a $705 target based on an optimistic Bitcoin trajectory. Their model, which assumed Bitcoin could reach $225,000 by the end of 2026, employed a sum-of-the-parts valuation, factoring in the projected value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings, a 10x multiple on its 2026 Bitcoin dollar gain, and residual software business value.
Even as MSTR fell over 60% from mid-2025 peaks—dropping from approximately $457 to near $150 over six months—Benchmark stood by its $705 target. The bank argued that Strategy is fundamentally a Bitcoin treasury company, not a traditional software firm, and that its substantial Bitcoin holdings create embedded optionality if the next Bitcoin rally materializes.
As of early Q2 2026, Strategy holds over 818,000 BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries, making it the largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury globally. This direct exposure to Bitcoin means any recalibration of BTC price targets directly impacts the equity valuation, prompting Benchmark to trim its upside estimate to $570 as the crypto market reassesses its cycle extremes.
In an April research note, Benchmark defended Strategy’s perpetual-preferred funding model, labeling it sustainable and rejecting comparisons to a Ponzi scheme. The bank described Strategy as a pioneer in corporate Bitcoin adoption, a thesis that remains intact even as the price target moves lower.
The new $570 target still implies significant upside from current trading levels, but it signals that even staunch bulls like Benchmark are adjusting their models to a less exuberant Bitcoin outlook. This interplay with on-chain dynamics and ETF flows remains a key theme for market observers.