The FIFA World Cup is driving a massive surge in prediction market activity, and Bernstein analysts predict Robinhood will be a major beneficiary. According to a recent research note, the brokerage firm expects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to soar from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, fueled by the tournament’s betting frenzy.
Bernstein highlights that daily prediction market volumes on Robinhood have skyrocketed, reaching $4.8 billion during World Cup matches—far exceeding the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl. This growth is attributed to Robinhood’s partnership with Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange that has processed over 200 million contracts since its launch in late May. The vast majority of this volume comes from FIFA World Cup and Major League Baseball contracts.
The firm notes that prediction markets are now Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue stream. With a $0.01 commission per contract and up to 50% fee discounts for Gold subscribers, Robinhood’s vast retail user base provides a competitive edge. Bernstein projects that prediction markets could account for 17% of transaction-based revenue and 10% of total company revenue by 2026.
Competition is also heating up, with Polymarket introducing private company event contracts and Kalshi launching CFTC-regulated crypto perpetual futures, which generated $1 billion in volume within a week. Meanwhile, Robinhood’s CEO Vlad Tenev recently secured approval for the firm to act as an underwriter for IPOs, expanding its financial services. The broader trend of pre-IPO perpetual futures is gaining traction, with platforms like Hyperliquid seeing billions in volume for SpaceX-related contracts.
Bernstein previously identified Robinhood, DraftKings, and Coinbase as key beneficiaries of the World Cup prediction market boom, estimating the tournament could generate an additional $3 billion in handle and up to $10 billion in extra consumer trading volume across the sector.