The CLARITY Act faces a critical deadline on May 21, after which the window for passage may close until 2030. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse emphasized at XRP Las Vegas on April 30 that the current political alignment—with the House, Senate, and White House united on crypto legislation—is exceptionally rare and could dissolve after the midterm elections.
The bill has garnered over 120 supporters, including major firms like Coinbase, Kraken, Circle, and Andreessen Horowitz, along with backing from the White House, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, and Treasury Secretary Bessent. Despite this broad support, the legislative path remains arduous. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno have independently warned that if the bill doesn’t pass in 2026, the next opportunity won’t arise until 2030.
Several procedural steps must be completed before May 21: a Banking Committee markup, a committee vote, a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, reconciliation between Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, and final reconciliation with the House text from July 2025—all followed by the President’s signature. With the Senate returning on May 11, only about eight working days remain.
The April markup deadline was missed due to the Kevin Warsh confirmation hearings consuming the Banking Committee’s schedule. Now, the compressed timeline leaves little room for delay. Senator Tillis has indicated he will request committee chair Tim Scott to schedule a markup promptly.
Senator Lummis, chair of the Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, stressed at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference on April 27 that the simultaneous alignment of all three branches on crypto legislation is unprecedented and fragile. She is not seeking re-election, removing personal political motives from her advocacy. Meanwhile, Mike Novogratz expressed optimism on a recent podcast, suggesting the bill could pass in May, but Galaxy Research places the odds at 50-50 or lower, and Polymarket gives it approximately 46% probability.
The crypto market has been watching the CLARITY Act closely, as its passage could significantly boost institutional adoption. The coming days will determine whether the bill advances or stalls for nearly four years.