The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to inject billions into the prediction market sector, with crypto exchange Coinbase positioned as a primary beneficiary, according to a recent analysis from Bernstein. The tournament, featuring 104 matches over a month, is expected to generate over $3 billion in additional sports betting handle and drive billions more in prediction market activity as global audiences engage with the event.
Bernstein’s report highlights that the World Cup arrives during a traditionally slow period for online sports betting, providing a unique opportunity for prediction platforms to capture new users and trading volume. The expanded tournament, watched by an estimated 6 billion people globally, could add between $5 billion and $10 billion to prediction market activity, with Coinbase emerging as a key winner. The exchange’s prediction market business, launched in partnership with Kalshi, surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue in March, just months after its debut.
Coinbase has been strengthening its position in event-based trading through multiple initiatives. In addition to the Kalshi partnership, which allows users across all 50 states to trade contracts on sports, politics, and other events, the exchange recently secured approval to offer global crypto perpetual futures to U.S. users through Deribit, a derivatives exchange it acquired for $2.9 billion. CEO Brian Armstrong noted that regulatory uncertainty had pushed much of crypto derivatives trading offshore, but this approval positions Coinbase as the first U.S. platform to connect customers to global liquidity.
Beyond derivatives and prediction markets, Coinbase has introduced Coinbase for Agents, enabling artificial intelligence systems to execute financial tasks such as market monitoring, portfolio rebalancing, and trade execution. While initially focused on cryptocurrency, the platform plans to expand to stocks and prediction markets, paving the way for automated participation in event-driven markets.
Industry data indicates that sports contracts dominate prediction market activity, accounting for over 39% of total volume in March, according to a report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket. Monthly prediction market trading volume reached nearly $26 billion, with retail traders making up over 80% of participants. The report found that users are increasingly active across recurring categories rather than trading only around major one-time events like elections.
Competition is intensifying, with Robinhood expected to benefit from the World Cup through its CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange Rothera. Bernstein forecasts approximately $586 million in prediction market revenue for Robinhood in 2026. Regulatory conditions may also become more favorable; the CFTC recently released draft rules indicating that sports event contracts are generally not considered contrary to the public interest, despite federal law classifying them as gaming products. This regulatory clarity could further accelerate growth in the sector.