Bitcoin’s price continues to struggle near the $61,750 mark, with analysts warning that the highly anticipated SpaceX initial public offering may siphon off investment capital from the crypto sector. This comes at a time when the market is already grappling with significant outflows from exchange-traded funds and weak investor sentiment.
The leading cryptocurrency has dropped roughly 14% over the past week, while the total crypto market cap declined by 1.1% in the last 24 hours, settling at $2.2 trillion. Traders are reducing their exposure in derivatives markets, evidenced by a 0.57% decrease in Bitcoin open interest to about $45 billion.
Investor sentiment has plunged into extreme fear territory, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registering a reading of just 9. This reflects growing caution amid rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Institutional demand shows clear signs of weakening. Data indicates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $168.8 million this week alone. Over the past four weeks, cumulative outflows have reached approximately $4.57 billion, with weekly withdrawals of $1.72 billion, $1.42 billion, and $1.26 billion in the preceding three weeks.
The persistent withdrawals have reduced the total net assets held by spot Bitcoin ETFs from $104.29 billion in mid-May to $77.58 billion as of June 9, according to SoSoValue.
On-chain metrics suggest the market has not yet reached a capitulation phase typical of major cycle bottoms. CryptoQuant reports that realized losses over the past 30 days total about 187,000 BTC, which is lower than the 400,000 BTC seen during the February sell-off and well below the 1.2 million BTC recorded after the FTX collapse. Historically, major bottoms form after seller exhaustion, and current data suggests that exhaustion has not yet occurred.
Technical indicators remain fragile. Bitcoin trades near the Murrey Math support zone around $62,500. A break below the nearby $59,375 support could expose the market to further downside. The MACD remains in bearish territory after a negative crossover, with the widening gap between the MACD and signal lines indicating that downward momentum has not fully abated.
Against this backdrop, analysts are increasingly focused on SpaceX’s public debut. The aerospace company, founded by Elon Musk, is reportedly preparing a $75 billion offering at a projected valuation of $1.75 trillion. About 30% of the offering may be reserved for retail investors—an unusually large allocation for such a sizeable IPO.
Some market participants believe the listing will attract capital that might have flowed into cryptocurrencies. Spencer Hallarn, global head of OTC trading at GSR, noted that crypto often serves as a funding source for such moves, and the $75 billion needed for the IPO must come from somewhere. Thomas Puech, CEO of crypto firm INDIGO, added that the offering could divert funds from digital assets, as both markets compete for the same pool of risk capital. He also pointed out that AI-related investments currently appear more attractive to growth-focused investors.
While there is no direct evidence that recent Bitcoin ETF outflows are being redirected toward SpaceX shares, the timing of the IPO could create another headwind for digital assets. With institutional demand weakening, sentiment stuck in extreme fear, and on-chain data indicating seller exhaustion has yet to emerge, Bitcoin may remain vulnerable to additional liquidity pressures in the weeks ahead.